Crypto adoption will be driven by high-growth markets, with or without the US  

Bitcoin’s recovery to its all-time high may be threatened by rising recession fears, which could ease if the United States and China begin tariff negotiations this month, research analysts told Cointelegraph.Appetite for global risk assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) may take another hit, with analysts from Apollo Global Management predicting a recession by the summer.“Apollo predicting Summer Recession: Sharpest decline in earnings outlook since 2020,” cross-asset analyst Samantha LaDuc wrote in an April 26 X post.The progress on the tariff negotiations may be the most significant factor impacting a potential recession and Bitcoin’s price trajectory, according to Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at crypto intelligence platform Nansen.Source: Samantha LaDuc“May is seen as pivotal as Chinese shipments reach the US’s shores, and exemptions on some tariff categories such as auto parts and sub-USD-800 shipments from China/ Hong Kong expire,” Barthere told Cointelegraph, adding that a lack of negotiations in May could lead to an economic recession and “double-digit losses” for Bitcoin.However, this is the least likely scenario, since neither China nor the US “ has an economic interest in the interruption of bilateral trade,” Barthere said, adding:“Given this, the main tariff scenario is for the US reaching deals or at least ‘agreements in principle’ with its main trade partners, probably settling around the 10% reciprocal tariff ‘floor’.”If that scenario plays out and trade tensions ease in May, Bitcoin is likely to revisit its all-time high, Barthere said. The US has “proactively reached out to China through multiple channels,” for signaling its openness for tariff negotiations, Reuters reported on May 1, citing unnamed sources who spoke to state-affiliated Chinese media platform Yuyuan Tantian.Related: Bitcoin treasury firms driving $200T hyperbitcoinization — Adam BackBitcoin may rally despite recessionWhile most analysts hope to see trade negotiations in May alleviate economic concerns, Bitcoin may see more upside even in the face of a potential recession.“Initially, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies may experience volatility, dropping alongside risk assets like stocks due to investor sell-offs,” Anndy Lian, author and intergovernmental blockchain adviser, told Cointelegraph, adding:“Historical data, such as Bitcoin’s recovery post-2020 recession, suggests it could rebound, especially if seen as a hedge against inflation.”“In stagflation (high inflation and slow growth), Bitcoin, often compared to gold, may perform well, attracting investors seeking value preservation. Yet, its increased correlation with the stock market, particularly tech stocks, introduces uncertainty,” said Lian, adding that crypto investors should continue monitoring economic policy shifts to gauge market direction.BTC/USD, 1-week chart, 2020-2021. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewHowever, Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with tech stocks adds uncertainty to that outlook. Following the COVID-19 crash in March 2020, Bitcoin surged more than 1,050%, climbing from $6,000 to an all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021. That rally came after the Federal Reserve launched its $4 trillion asset purchase program in March 2020.Related: Bitcoin to $1M by 2029 fueled by ETF and gov’t demand — Bitwise execOther industry watchers remain concerned by the crypto market’s response to economic stagnation.“If the analysts are correct about the recession (which is certainly not guaranteed), crypto markets will likely decline alongside broader risk-on assets and equities,” according to Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder and chief operating officer of blockchain oracle firm RedStone.Kazmierczak said April’s “Liberation Day tariffs and trucking slowdown could create economic contagion that historically hits speculative assets hardest.” “While crypto’s growing institutional adoption introduces some uncertainty, it’s not enough to overcome the fundamental risk-on classification that still dominates market behavior,” he added.Magazine: Altcoin season to hit in Q2? Mantra’s plan to win trust: Hodler’s Digest, April 13 – 19

The United Kingdom’s financial regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), plans to stop retail investors from borrowing money to fund their crypto investments.According to a May 2 Financial Times report, the ban on borrowing to fund crypto purchases is one of the upcoming crypto rules by the FCA. David Geale, FCA executive director of payments and digital finance, told the FT that “crypto is an area of potential growth for the UK, but it has to be done right.” He added:“To do that we have to provide an appropriate level of protection.”Geale denied claims that the FCA is hostile to the crypto industry. Instead, he explained that he views the industry as offering high-risk investments with less consumer protection. “We are open for business,“ he said.The interview follows the FCA seeking feedback on regulating the crypto market. In an attached document, the regulator noted that it is “exploring whether it would be appropriate to restrict firms from accepting credit as a means for consumers to buy cryptoassets.”FCA crypto regulation discussion paper. Source: FCAThe FCA did not respond to Cointelegraph’s inquiry by publication.Related: FCA releases discussion paper on crypto market transparency, abuseFCA’s upcoming rulesThe FCA aims to regulate the domestic cryptocurrency market, ruling over trading platforms, intermediaries, crypto lenders and borrowers, as well as decentralized finance (DeFi) systems. The regulator reportedly plans to introduce stricter rules for crypto services aimed at retail investors than those offered exclusively to professional or sophisticated investors.Gale explained that the agency aims to develop a framework “that is safe and is competitive.” He said that the regulator aims to develop a regulatory regime that would attract businesses:“If we can get the regulatory regime right it actually becomes attractive for firms. That is what we are trying to achieve.”Related: UK’s finance watchdog defends ‘too tough’ crypto stanceThe FCA lending banThe regulator explained that its upcoming ban to restrict lending to fund consumers’ crypto purchases is motivated by a concern over “unsustainable debt, particularly if the value of their crypto asset drops and they were relying on its value to repay.” The ban would also include credit card purchases.While 2024 FCA research showed that “the leading method of payment for cryptoassets among cryptoasset users continues to be the individual’s own disposable cash/income (72%),” it also highlights a growing trend in credit purchases. The research cites that only 6% of purchases were made on credit in 2022, but this metric climbed to 14% in 2024.The FCA also purportedly plans to block retail investors from accessing crypto lenders and borrowers. Other concerns about the crypto market cited by the regulator include market manipulation, conflicts of interest, settlement failures, a lack of transparency, illiquidity, and unreliable trading systems.To alleviate those issues, the regulator plans to require equal trade treatment by crypto trading platforms. Other potential rules include the enforcement of a separation between proprietary trading activities from those done for retail investors and demanding transparency on trade pricing and execution.Trading platforms would be banned from paying intermediaries for order flow, and users of staking services would have to be reimbursed for any potential losses caused by third parties. The FCA plans to exempt DeFi systems without centralized operations, as long as they do not feature a “clear controlling person.”Magazine: Crypto wanted to overthrow banks, now it’s becoming them in stablecoin fight

Crypto exchange KuCoin said that it may reenter South Korea after its platform was blocked in the country. On March 21, South Korean regulators ordered Google Play to block access to exchanges that were not compliant with the requirements needed to operate in the country. On April 11, South Korea’s Financial Services Commission (FSC) ordered the Apple Store to block unregistered crypto exchanges. KuCoin was among those affected by the country’s crackdown on unregistered platforms that were previously available. While the platform is now unavailable to South Koreans, it has not fully abandoned the jurisdiction. In an exclusive interview with Cointelegraph, KuCoin’s newly appointed CEO, BC Wong, said that the crypto exchange has plans to reenter the country. Wong (left), KuCoin EU CEO Oliver Stauber (middle) and Cointelegraph reporter Ezra Reguerra (right) at the Token2049 event in Dubai. Source: Market AcrossRegulators drive global players away from local marketsWong told Cointelegraph that before the exchange can reenter South Korea, it plans to secure compliance with major jurisdictions first. He said: “The resource is there. We need to go one by one. Our strategy will always be that major jurisdictions come first, which means the United States, EU, China, India, and maybe after that, Australia.”Wong confirmed to Cointelegraph that KuCoin representatives had started speaking with regulators. The executive said that operating in crypto is very similar to traditional financial markets, where there’s a need for a clear background in each jurisdiction. The KuCoin CEO also said that regulators are stricter compared to three years ago. He said that this could be a move to drive global players away from local crypto markets. “I’m not so sure that if the regulators’ intention is to regulate the global market or just simply, they want to pave the way to get all the global kind of players to be out from their market, and pave the road for their domestic exchange,” Wong added. Related: Kraken tells how it spotted North Korean hacker in job interviewKuCoin’s EU CEO shares regulatory challenges in EuropeOliver Stauber, who joined KuCoin as its European Union CEO, told Cointelegraph that there are also difficulties operating in the EU, even with the bloc’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) in place. Stauber, who previously worked as the chief legal officer of Bitpanda, told Cointelegraph that while MiCA licenses have a passporting feature, which should allow license holders to provide services across the EU, the executive said that some jurisdictions interpret the laws differently. Stauber said that some jurisdictions may say that licenses were “wrongly assessed,” which gets in the way of operating in some jurisdictions.  “MiCA was said to have a level playing field in crypto all over Europe. However, as long as there are players who are not playing by the books, you know it’s getting quite messy and difficult,” Stauber told Cointelegraph. Magazine: Pokémon on Sui rumors, Polymarket bets on Filipino Pope: Asia Express