Trump tariff negotiations are ‘all about’ China deal — Raoul Pal  

8 April 2025

Cointelegraph by Zoltan Vardai

  ​

Trump tariff negotiations are ‘all about’ China deal — Raoul Pal

Global trade tensions triggered by US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff measures may come to an end with a potential deal with China as investors remain concerned about escalation from both sides.

Trump’s April 2 announcement of reciprocal import tariffs sent shockwaves through global equity and crypto markets. The measures include a 10% baseline tariff on all imported goods, effective April 5, with higher levies — such as a 34% tariff on Chinese imports — set to begin on April 9.

However, the tariff negotiations may only be “posturing” for the US to reach an agreement with China, according to Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor.

“In the end, almost all the other tariff negotiations and rhetoric are all about getting China to agree a deal,” Pal wrote in an April 8 X post, adding:

“That is the big prize and both China and the US understand it and need it. Everything else is negotiation posturing. China needs a weaker $ and the US needs tariffs.”

Trump tariff negotiations are ‘all about’ China deal — Raoul Pal

Source: Raoul Pal

“Also, the US is trying to shut down China tariff arbitrage using other channels such as Mexico or Vietnam,” Pal said.

Related: Bitcoin price can hit $250K in 2025 if Fed shifts to QE: Arthur Hayes

China retaliates with new tariffs

Considering China’s latest retaliatory measures, a resolution remains unlikely in the short term.

In response to US tariffs, China imposed a 34% tariff on all US imports effective April 10, media outlet Xinhua News reported on April 4. China’s foreign ministry also vowed to “fight till the end” against Trump’s tariffs, which it called “bullying” by the world’s largest economy.

Trump tariff negotiations are ‘all about’ China deal — Raoul Pal

China overtakes the US in global trade. Source: Econovis

China overtook the US in 2012 to become the world’s largest trading nation by the total value of exports and imports, surpassing $4 trillion in goods trade that year, according to The Guardian.

Crypto markets watch trade outcome closely

As the trade dispute continues to evolve, analysts say a potential agreement between the two global superpowers could serve as a key catalyst for recovery in digital asset markets.

Crypto markets have a 70% chance to bottom by June 2025 before recovering, Nansen analysts predicted.

Related: Crypto market bottom likely by June despite tariff fears: Finance Redefined

Investor appetite for risk assets such as Bitcoin will depend on the global tariff responses from other countries, according to Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at Nansen.

“We have reached somewhat of a local bottom in regard to tariffs and the impact on prices,” the analyst said during Cointelegraph’s Chainreaction live show on X, adding:

“Trump came out guns blazing, and we’ve mostly seen the worst from the US side, so we’ll see if other countries are willing to drop some of the tariffs because it’s very likely the US will do the same.”

Magazine: Bitcoin ATH sooner than expected? XRP may drop 40%, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 23 – 29

 

You might also like

SEC drops investigation into PayPal’s stablecoin  
SEC drops investigation into PayPal’s stablecoin  

PayPal says the US Securities and Exchange Commission has abandoned its investigation into the payment giant’s US-dollar stablecoin.PayPal said in an April 29 regulatory filing that the SEC concluded its investigation into PayPal USD (PYUSD) and wouldn’t be taking any action.The company said it received a subpoena from the SEC’s Division of Enforcement over its stablecoin in November 2023. “The subpoena requests the production of documents. We are cooperating with the SEC in connection with this request,” PayPal stated at the time.In its latest filing, the firm said the SEC notified it in February that the agency “was closing this inquiry without enforcement action.”PayPal has said its stablecoin is 100% redeemable for US dollars and “fully backed” by dollar deposits, including short-term treasuries and cash equivalents. However, the stablecoin has struggled to gain momentum in a crowded market dominated by rivals Tether and Circle. PYUSD has a market capitalization of just $880 million, less than 1% of Tether’s (USDT) $148.5 billion.PayPal’s stablecoin has seen better growth this year with a 75% increase in PYUSD circulating supply since the beginning of 2025, according to CoinGecko. It remains down 14% from its peak supply of just over $1 billion in August 2024. PayPal USD market capitalization. Source: CoinGeckoEarnings on PYUSD, Coinbase partnershipThat growth could be bolstered by a company announcement on April 23 introducing rewards for PYUSD in a new loyalty offering that will enable US users to earn 3.7% annually for holding the asset on the platform. Meanwhile, on April 24, PayPal announced a partnership with Coinbase to increase the adoption of PYUSD. “We are excited to drive new, exciting, and innovative use cases together with Coinbase and the entire cryptocurrency community, putting PYUSD at the center,”  said Alex Chriss, PayPal President and CEO.Related: PayPal to offer 3.7% yield on stablecoin balances: ReportThe payments giant also reported robust first-quarter earnings and the completion of significant share repurchase activities. The firm beat Wall Street estimates, earning $1.33 per share in the first quarter, topping analyst expectations of $1.16. Revenue rose 1% from a year before to $7.8 billion. Magazine: Bitcoin $100K hopes on ice, SBF’s mysterious prison move: Hodler’s Digest

BlackRock files to create digital shares tracking one of its money market funds  
BlackRock files to create digital shares tracking one of its money market funds  

Asset manager BlackRock has filed to create digital ledger technology shares from one of the firm’s money market funds, which will leverage blockchain technology to maintain a mirror record of share ownership for investors.The DLT shares will track BlackRock’s BLF Treasury Trust Fund (TTTXX), which may only be purchased from BlackRock Advisors and The Bank of New York Mellon (BNY), the firm said in its April 29 Form N-1A filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.The money market fund holds over $150 million worth of assets, invested almost entirely in US Treasury bills and cash.BlackRock said that the shares “are expected to be purchased and held through BNY, which intends to use blockchain technology to maintain a mirror record of share ownership for its customers.”Unlike the BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL), DLT shares won’t be tokenized but will instead be used as a transparency tool to verify ownership.BlackRock will continue to maintain traditional book-entry records as the official ownership ledger.BlackRock didn’t propose a ticker or set a management fee for the DLT shares in its filing.A minimum initial investment of $3 million worth of DLT is required for institutions seeking to purchase the digital shares. BlackRock follows Fidelity’s March 21 filing to list an Ethereum-based OnChain share class, which seeks to track the Fidelity Treasury Digital Fund (FYHXX) — an $80 million fund consisting almost entirely of US Treasury bills.While the OnChain share class filing is pending regulatory approval, Fidelity expects it to take effect on May 30.Wall Street heavyweights continue to explore blockchain use casesAsset managers have increasingly turned to blockchain to tokenize Treasury bills, bonds and private credit over the past few years.Related: BlackRock Bitcoin ETF buys $970M in BTC as inflows surge, boost marketThe treasury tokenization market is currently valued at $6.16 billion, led by BlackRock’s BUIDL at $2.55 billion, while the Franklin Templeton-issued Franklin OnChain US Government Money Fund (BENJI) secures over $700 million worth of real-world assets, according to rwa.xyz.Market caps of blockchain-based Treasury products. Source: rwa.xyzEthereum remains the chain of choice for tokenizing treasury assets, and currently houses over $4.55 billion worth, while the Stellar network and Solana round out the top three at $474.9 million and $274.5 million, respectively.The potential of RWA tokenization has also been championed by BlackRock’s CEO, Larry Fink, who believes the technology could revolutionize investing.Magazine: Ethereum is destroying the competition in the $16.1T TradFi tokenization race

US Treasury’s OFAC can’t restore Tornado Cash sanctions, judge rules  
US Treasury’s OFAC can’t restore Tornado Cash sanctions, judge rules  

The US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control can’t restore or reimpose sanctions against the crypto mixing service Tornado Cash, a US federal court has ruled.Austin federal court judge Robert Pitman said in an April 28 judgment that OFAC’s sanctions on Tornado Cash were unlawful and that the agency was “permanently enjoined from enforcing” sanctions.Tornado Cash users led by Joseph Van Loon had sued the Treasury, arguing that OFAC’s addition of the platform’s smart contract addresses to its Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons (SDN) list was “not in accordance with law.” OFAC had sanctioned Tornado Cash in August 2022, accusing the protocol of helping launder crypto stolen by the North Korean hacking collective, the Lazarus Group.The agency dropped the platform from the sanctions list on March 21 and argued that the matter was “moot” after a court ruled in favor of Tornado Cash in January.This latest amended ruling prevents OFAC from re-sanctioning Tornado Cash or putting it back on the blacklist.Initially, the court denied a motion for partial summary judgment and granted in favour of the Treasury. However, the Fifth Circuit reversed the decision and instructed the lower court to grant partial summary judgment to the plaintiffs, which led to the sanctions being revoked. In March, the Treasury argued there was no need for a final court judgment in the lawsuit.An excerpt from Judge Robert Pitman’s ruling. Source: CourtListenerCrypto body petitions White House over Tornado CashOn April 28, the DeFi Education Fund petitioned White House crypto czar David Sacks to have prosecutors drop charges against Tornado Cash co-founder Roman Storm.Related: Samourai Wallet, feds ask for time to mull dropping crypto mixer caseStorm was charged in August 2023 with helping launder over $1 billion in crypto through the protocol, and his trial is still set for July.The group said that the Department of Justice was attempting to hold software developers criminally liable for how others use their code, which they argued was “not only absurd in principle, but it sets a precedent that potentially chills all crypto development in the United States.”Magazine: Bitcoin $100K hopes on ice, SBF’s mysterious prison move: Hodler’s Digest

Open chat
1
BlockFo Chat
Hello 👋, How can we help you?
📱 When you've pressed the BlockFo button, we automatically transfer to WhatsApp 🔝🔐
🖥️ Or, if you use a PC or Mac, then we'll open a new window to load your desktop app.
BlockFo
BlockFo