Bitcoin ‘more likely’ to hit $110K before $76.5K — Arthur Hayes  

Concerns over a global trade war continue to pressure traditional and cryptocurrency markets as investors brace for a potential tariff announcement from US President Donald Trump on April 2 — a move that could set the tone for Bitcoin’s price trajectory throughout the month.Trump first announced import tariffs on Chinese goods on Jan. 20, the day of his inauguration as president.Global tariff fears have led to heightened inflation concerns, limiting appetite for risk assets among investors. Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen 18%, and the S&P 500 (SPX) index has fallen more than 7% in the two months following the initial tariff announcement, according to TradingView data, TradingView data shows.“Going forward, April 2 is drawing increased attention as a potential flashpoint for fresh US tariff announcements,” Stella Zlatareva, dispatch editor at digital asset investment platform Nexo, told Cointelegraph.S&P 500, BTC/USD, 1-day chart. Source: TradingView Investor sentiment took another hit on March 29 after Trump pressed his senior advisers to take a more aggressive stance on import tariffs, which may be seen as a potential escalation of the trade war, the Washington Post reported, citing four unnamed sources familiar with the matter.The April 2 announcement is expected to detail reciprocal trade tariffs targeting top US trading partners. The measures aim to reduce the country’s estimated $1.2 trillion goods trade deficit and boost domestic manufacturing.Related: Bitcoin ‘more likely’ to hit $110K before $76.5K — Arthur HayesBitcoin ETFs, whales continue accumulatingDespite mounting uncertainty, large Bitcoin holders — known as “whales,” with between 1,000 BTC and 10,000 BTC — have continued to accumulate. Addresses in this category have remained steady since the beginning of 2025, from 1,956 addresses on Jan. 1 to over 1,990 addresses on March 27 — still below the previous cycle’s peak of 2,370 addresses recorded in February 2024, Glassnode data shows.Whale address count. Source: Glassnode“Risk appetite remains muted amid tariff threats from President Trump and ongoing macro uncertainty,” according to Iliya Kalchev, dispatch analyst at Nexo, who told Cointelegraph:“Still, BTC accumulation by whales and a 10-day ETF inflow streak point to steady institutional demand. But hawkish surprises — from inflation or trade — may keep crypto rangebound into April.”Related: $1T stablecoin supply could drive next crypto rally — CoinFund’s PakmanThe US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds halted their 10-day accumulation streak on March 28 when Fidelity’s ETF recorded over $93 million worth of outflows, while the other ETF issuers registered no inflows or outflows, Farside Investors data shows.Bitcoin ETF Flows. Source: Farside InvestorsDespite short-term volatility concerns, analysts remained optimistic about Bitcoin’s price trajectory for late 2025, with price predictions ranging from $160,000 to above $180,000.Magazine: SCB tips $500K BTC, SEC delays Ether ETF options, and more: Hodler’s Digest, Feb. 23 – March 1

United States cryptocurrency regulations need more clarity on stablecoins and banking relationships before lawmakers prioritize tax reform, according to industry leaders and legal experts.“In my view, tax isn’t necessarily the priority for upgrading US crypto regulation,” according to Mattan Erder, general counsel at layer-3 decentralized blockchain network Orbs.A “tailored regulatory approach” for areas including securities laws and removing “obstacles in banking” is a priority for US lawmakers with “more upside” for the industry, Erder told Cointelegraph.“The new Trump administration is clearly all in on crypto and is taking steps that we could have only dreamed about a few years ago (including during his first term),” he said. “It seems likely that crypto regulation will be able to have it all and get much more clear and rational regulation in all areas, including tax.”Still, Erder noted there are limits to what President Donald Trump can accomplish through executive orders and regulatory agency action alone. “At some point, the laws themselves will need to change, and for that, he will need Congress,” he said.Trump’s March 7 executive order, which directed the government to establish a national Bitcoin reserve using crypto assets seized in criminal cases, was seen as a signal of growing federal support for digital assets.Related: Trump turned crypto from ‘oppressed industry’ to ‘centerpiece’ of US strategyDebanking concerns remainDespite the administration’s recent pro-crypto moves, industry experts say crypto firms may continue to face difficulties with banking access until at least January 2026.“It’s premature to say that debanking is over,” as “Trump won’t have the ability to appoint a new Fed governor until January,” Caitlin Long, founder and CEO of Custodia Bank, said during Cointelegraph’s Chainreaction daily X show.The Crypto Debanking Crisis: #CHAINREACTION https://t.co/nD4qkkzKnB— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) March 21, 2025Industry outrage over alleged debanking reached a crescendo when a June 2024 lawsuit spearheaded by ​​Coinbase resulted in the release of letters showing US banking regulators asked certain financial institutions to “pause” crypto banking activities.Related: Bitcoin may benefit from US stablecoin dominance pushStablecoin legislation could unlock new growthDavid Pakman, managing partner at crypto investment firm CoinFund, said a stablecoin regulatory framework could encourage more traditional finance institutions to adopt blockchain-based payments.“Some of the potentially soon-to-pass legislation in the US, like the stablecoin bill, will unlock many of the traditional banks, financial services and payment companies onto crypto rails,” Pakman said during Cointelegraph’s Chainreaction live X show on March 27.“We hear this firsthand when we talk to them; they want to use crypto rails as a lower-cost, transparent, 24/7, and no middleman-dependent network for transferring money.”The comments come as the industry awaits progress on US stablecoin legislation, which may come as soon as in the next two months, according to Bo Hines, the executive director of the president’s Council of Advisers on Digital Assets.The GENIUS Act, an acronym for Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins, would establish collateralization guidelines for stablecoin issuers while requiring full compliance with Anti-Money Laundering laws.Magazine: SEC’s U-turn on crypto leaves key questions unanswered

Institutional adoption of Bitcoin in the European Union remains sluggish, even as the United States moves forward with landmark cryptocurrency regulations that seek to establish BTC as a national reserve asset.More than three weeks after President Donald Trump’s March 7 executive order outlined plans to use cryptocurrency seized in criminal cases to create a federal Bitcoin (BTC) reserve, European companies have largely remained silent on the issue.The stagnation may stem from Europe’s complex regulatory regime, according to Elisenda Fabrega, general counsel at Brickken, a European real-world asset (RWA) tokenization platform.“European corporate adoption remains limited,” Fabrega told Cointelegraph, adding:“This hesitation reflects a deeper structural divide, rooted in regulation, institutional signaling and market maturity. Europe has yet to take a definitive stance on Bitcoin as a reserve asset.”Bitcoin’s economic model favors early adopters, which may pressure more investment firms to consider gaining exposure to BTC. The asset has outperformed most major global assets since Trump’s election despite a recent correction.Asset performance since Trump’s election victory. Source: Thomas FahrerDespite Trump’s executive order, only a small number of European companies have publicly disclosed Bitcoin holdings or crypto services. These include French banking giant BNP Paribas, Swiss firm 21Shares AG, VanEck Europe, Malta-based Jacobi Asset Management and Austrian fintech firm Bitpanda.A recent Bitpanda survey suggests that European financial institutions may be underestimating crypto investor demand by as much as 30%.Related: Friday’s US inflation report may catalyze a Bitcoin April rallyEurope’s “fragmented” regulatory landscape lacks clarityThe EU’s slower adoption appears tied to its patchwork of regulations and more conservative investment mandates, analysts at Bitfinex told Cointelegraph. “Europe’s institutional landscape is more fragmented, with regulatory hurdles and conservative investment mandates limiting Bitcoin allocations.”“Additionally, European pension funds and large asset managers have been slower to adopt Bitcoin exposure due to unclear guidelines and risk aversion,” they added.Related: Bitcoin ‘more likely’ to hit $110K before $76.5K — Arthur HayesBeyond the fragmented regulations, European retail investor appetite and retail participation are generally lower than in the US, according to Iliya Kalchev, dispatch analyst at digital asset investment platform Nexo.Europe is “generally more conservative in adopting new financial instruments,” the analyst told Cointelegraph, adding:“This stands in stark contrast to the deep, liquid, and relatively unified US capital market, where the spot Bitcoin ETF rollout was buoyed by strong retail demand and a clear regulatory green light.”iShares Bitcoin ETP listings. Source: BlackRockBlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, launched a Bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP) in Europe on March 25, a development that may boost institutional confidence among European investors.Magazine: Bitcoiner sex trap extortion? BTS firm’s blockchain disaster: Asia Express